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A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

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posted on 2024-05-17, 12:11 authored by DD Rousseau, W Bagniewski, V Lucarini
The Earth’s climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points.

Funding

European Commission, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (TiPES, grant no. 820970), by the Marie Cure ITN Critical Earth (Grant No. 956170) and from the EPSRC Project No. EP/T018178/1

Applied Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems: Theory, Methods and Examples

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

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History

Author affiliation

College of Science & Engineering College of Science & Engineering/Comp' & Math' Sciences

Version

  • VoR (Version of Record)

Published in

Scientific Reports

Volume

13

Issue

1

Pagination

11290

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

issn

2045-2322

eissn

2045-2322

Copyright date

2023

Available date

2024-05-17

Spatial coverage

England

Language

eng

Deposited by

Professor Valerio Lucarini

Deposit date

2024-02-26

Data Access Statement

All data generated by the present study from the main text or the supplementary materials will be submitted to PANGAEA data repository. U1308 marine data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.871937 (Hodell and Channell, 2016b). CENOGRID data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.917503 (Westerhold, 2020).

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