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Airborne Alternaria and Cladosporium fungal spores in Europe: Forecasting possibilities and relationships with meteorological parameters

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posted on 2019-02-07, 13:19 authored by C Pashley, A Grinn-Gofron, J Nowosad, B Bosiacka, I Camacho, J Belmonte, C De Linares, N Ianovici, JMM Manzano, M Sadys, C Skjoth, V Rodinkova, R Tormo-Molina, D Vokou, S Fernandez-Rodriguez, A Damialis
Airborne fungal spores are prevalent components of bioaerosols with a large impact on ecology, economy and health. Their major socioeconomic effects could be reduced by accurate and timely prediction of airborne spore concentrations. The main aim of this study was to create and evaluate models of Alternaria and Cladosporium spore concentrations based on data on a continental scale. Additional goals included assessment of the level of generalization of the models spatially and description of the main meteorological factors influencing fungal spore concentrations. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out at 18 sites in six countries across Europe over 3 to 21 years depending on site. Quantile random forest modelling was used to predict spore concentrations. Generalization of the Alternaria and Cladosporium models was tested using (i) one model for all the sites, (ii) models for groups of sites, and (iii) models for individual sites. The study revealed the possibility of reliable prediction of fungal spore levels using gridded meteorological data. The classification models also showed the capacity for providing larger scale predictions of fungal spore concentrations. Regression models were distinctly less accurate than classification models due to several factors, including measurement errors and distinct day-to-day changes of concentrations. Temperature and vapour pressure proved to be the most important variables in the regression and classification models of Alternaria and Cladosporium spore concentrations. Accurate and operational daily-scale predictive models of bioaerosol abundances contribute to the assessment and evaluation of relevant exposure and consequently more timely and efficient management of phytopathogenic and of human allergic diseases.

Funding

This research was partly implemented in the framework of the EUCOST Action DiMoPEx (Diagnosis, Monitoring and Prevention of Exposure-Related Noncommunicable Diseases), under Grant Number CA15129 (EU Framework Programme Horizon 2020).

History

Citation

Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 653, pp. 938-946

Author affiliation

/Organisation/COLLEGE OF LIFE SCIENCES/School of Medicine/Department of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation

Version

  • AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Published in

Science of the Total Environment

Publisher

Elsevier

issn

0048-9697

eissn

1879-1026

Acceptance date

2018-10-30

Copyright date

2018

Publisher version

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718343195?via=ihub

Notes

The file associated with this record is under embargo until 12 months after publication, in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above.

Language

en

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