An individual based model of female brown crab movements in the western English channel: modelling migration behaviour

An individual based model (IBM) of the female brown crab Cancer pagurus population exploited off South Devon, UK is described. Size dependent movement rules are ascribed to individuals based on previous observations of predominantly westward migration down the English Channel. Two additional versions of the movement rules explored whether the empirically derived rule was necessary to model the temporal and spatial distribution of crabs. Local crab movement was dependent on substrate type and water depth. Females prefer a soft substrate in which they can bury when temperatures are low or they have eggs to incubate. Crabs have size dependent depth preferences with larger crabs preferring greater depths. Two recruitment functions are used which relate the number of incoming crabs to the sea surface temperature five years earlier. Model outputs were tested against 10 years of logbook data from three crab fishers and against data from a year-long sampling programme on eight of the vessels exploiting the area. The model reproduces the long-term pattern which is mostly temperature driven. Spatial variation in catch is captured effectively by the model with more crabs being caught in the east of the area than the west and more caught offshore than inshore. The significance of the results is discussed in relation to the crab life cycle, management of the fishery and the potential effects of increasing temperatures.