University of Leicester
Browse
Burnelletal20221-s2.0-S0048969722019787-am.pdf (2.85 MB)

Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia

Download (2.85 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 2024-03-26, 15:32 authored by AL Burrell, Q Sun, R Baxter, EA Kukavskaya, S Zhila, T Shestakova, BM Rogers, J Kaduk, K Barrett
Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burned area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss. We then used machine learning to predict how the FRI will change under a high emissions scenario (SSP3–7.0) by the end of the century. We found that there are currently 133,000 km2 forest at high, or extreme, risk of fire-induced forest loss, with a further 3 M km2 at risk by the end of the century. This has the potential to degrade or destroy some of the largest remaining intact forests in the world, negatively impact the health and economic wellbeing of people living in the region, as well as accelerate global climate change.

Funding

This work was supported by (i) the UK Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/N009495/1] awarded to KB, RB and JK and (ii) the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) grant 80NSSC19M0112. EK and SZ acknowledge funding support from the RFBR, Government of the Krasnoyarsk krai and the Krasnoyarsk Regional Foundation of Scientific and Scientific-Technical Support (Grant #20-44-242004)

History

Author affiliation

School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester,

Version

  • AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Published in

Science of the Total Environment

Volume

831

Pagination

154885

Publisher

Elsevier BV

issn

0048-9697

eissn

1879-1026

Copyright date

2022

Available date

2024-03-26

Spatial coverage

Netherlands

Language

eng

Usage metrics

    University of Leicester Publications

    Categories

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC