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Computationally efficient inference in large Bayesian mixed frequency VARs

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posted on 2020-05-26, 10:54 authored by Deborah Gefang, Gary Koop, Aubrey Poon

Mixed frequency Vector Autoregressions (MF-VARs) can be used to provide timely and high frequency estimates or nowcasts of variables for which data is available at a low frequency. Bayesian methods are commonly used with MF-VARs to overcome over-parameterization concerns. But Bayesian methods typically rely on computationally demanding Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In this paper, we develop Variational Bayes (VB) methods for use with MF-VARs using Dirichlet–Laplace global–local shrinkage priors. We show that these methods are accurate and computationally much more efficient than MCMC in two empirical applications involving large MF-VARs.

    Funding

    This research has been funded by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) as part of the research programme of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).

    History

    Citation

    Economics Letters Volume 191, June 2020, 109120

    Version

    • AM (Accepted Manuscript)

    Published in

    Economics Letters

    Volume

    191

    Pagination

    109120

    Publisher

    Elsevier BV

    issn

    0165-1765

    Acceptance date

    2020-03-25

    Copyright date

    2020

    Notes

    The Online Appendix for this paper is available at https://sites.google.com/site/garykoop/.

    Language

    en

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