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Empirical Bayes factors for common hypothesis tests

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posted on 2024-05-02, 09:23 authored by Frank DudbridgeFrank Dudbridge
Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues I revisit the posterior Bayes factor, in which the posterior distribution from the data at hand is re-used in the Bayes factor for the same data. I argue that this is biased when calibrated against proper Bayes factors, but propose adjustments to allow interpretation on the same scale. In the important case of a regular normal model, the bias in log scale is half the number of parameters. The resulting empirical Bayes factor is closely related to the widely applicable information criterion. I develop test-based empirical Bayes factors for several standard tests and propose an extension to multiple testing closely related to the optimal discovery procedure. When only a P-value is available, an approximate empirical Bayes factor is 10p. I propose interpreting the strength of Bayes factors on a logarithmic scale with base 3.73, reflecting the sharpest distinction between weaker and stronger belief. This provides an objective framework for interpreting statistical evidence, and realises a Bayesian/frequentist compromise.

History

Author affiliation

College of Life Sciences/Population Health Sciences

Version

  • VoR (Version of Record)

Published in

PLOS ONE

Volume

19

Issue

2

Pagination

e0297874

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

issn

1932-6203

eissn

1932-6203

Copyright date

2024

Available date

2024-05-02

Editors

Rodriguez PM

Spatial coverage

United States

Language

en

Deposited by

Professor Frank Dudbridge

Deposit date

2024-04-27

Data Access Statement

An R package implementing the calculations in this paper is available from https://github.com/DudbridgeLab/ebf/.

Rights Retention Statement

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