Exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes
Do voters react to shocks that are beyond the control of politicians? We consider the case of the assassination of a senior politician in India, in the middle of an election. We find that Congress(I), the party of the assassinated leader, gained significantly from this event through increased vote shares and improved likelihood of victory. Sympathy towards Congress(I) and changed perceptions about governing abilities of the contesting parties in the post-assassination environment played crucial roles in determining the final outcomes of the election. Our results imply that even in environments where voters are expected to make their decisions based on prior performance of parties, an unanticipated, random, exogenous event can affect voting behaviour.
History
Author affiliation
College of Social Sci Arts and Humanities/School of BusinessVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Published in
Public ChoicePublisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLCissn
0048-5829eissn
1573-7101Copyright date
2024Available date
2024-05-14Publisher DOI
Language
enPublisher version
Deposited by
Dr Kaustav DasDeposit date
2024-05-11Data Access Statement
Available on request.Rights Retention Statement
- No