Intra-annual oxygen isotopes in the tree rings record precipitation extremes and water reservoir levels in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil

The impacts of climate change on precipitation and the growing demand for water have increased the water risks worldwide. Water scarcity is one of the main challenges of the 21st century, and the assessment of water risks is only possible from spatially distributed records of historical climate and levels of water reservoirs. One potential method to assess water supply is the reconstruction of oxygen isotopes in rainfall. We here investigated the use of tree-ring stable isotopes in urban trees to assess spatial/temporal variation in precipitation and level of water reservoirs. We analyzed the intra-annual variation of δ13C and δ18O in the tree rings of Tipuana tipu trees from northern and southern Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), Brazil. While variation in δ13C indicates low leaf-level enrichments from evapotranspiration, δ18O variation clearly reflects precipitation extremes. Tree-ring δ18O was highest during the 2014 drought, associated with the lowest historical reservoir levels in the city. The δ18O values from the middle of the tree rings have a strong association with the mid-summer precipitation (r = −0.71), similar to the association between the volume of precipitation and its δ18O signature (r = −0.76). These consistent results allowed us to test the association between tree-ring δ18O and water-level of the main reservoirs that supply the MASP. We observed a strong association between intra-annual tree-ring δ18O and the water-level of reservoirs in the northern and southern MASP (r = −0.94, r = −0.90, respectively). These results point to the potential use of high-resolution tree-ring stable isotopes to put precipitation extremes, and water supply, in a historical perspective assisting public policies related to water risks and climate change. The ability to record precipitation extremes, and previously reported capacity to record air pollution, place Tipuana tipu in a prominent position as a reliable environmental monitor for urban locations.