University of Leicester
Staffogia_LT_mortality_AQ_ELAPSE_Lancet.pdf (996.46 kB)

Long-term exposure to low ambient air pollution concentrations and mortality among 28 million people: results from seven large European cohorts within the ELAPSE project

Download (996.46 kB)
journal contribution
posted on 2022-05-17, 11:04 authored by M Stafoggia, B Oftedal, J Chen, S Rodopoulou, M Renzi, RW Atkinson, M Bauwelinck, JO Klompmaker, A Mehta, D Vienneau, ZJ Andersen, T Bellander, J Brandt, G Cesaroni, K de Hoogh, D Fecht, J Gulliver, O Hertel, B Hoffmann, UA Hvidtfeldt, KH Jöckel, JT Jørgensen, K Katsouyanni, M Ketzel, DT Kristoffersen, A Lager, K Leander, S Liu, PLS Ljungman, G Nagel, G Pershagen, A Peters, O Raaschou-Nielsen, D Rizzuto, S Schramm, PE Schwarze, G Severi, T Sigsgaard, M Strak, YT van der Schouw, M Verschuren, G Weinmayr, K Wolf, E Zitt, E Samoli, F Forastiere, B Brunekreef, G Hoek, NAH Janssen
Background: Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with premature mortality, but associations at concentrations lower than current annual limit values are uncertain. We analysed associations between low-level air pollution and mortality within the multicentre study Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE). Methods: In this multicentre longitudinal study, we analysed seven population-based cohorts of adults (age ≥30 years) within ELAPSE, from Belgium, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, Norway, Rome (Italy), and Switzerland (enrolled in 2000–11; follow-up until 2011–17). Mortality registries were used to extract the underlying cause of death for deceased individuals. Annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon, and tropospheric warm-season ozone (O3) from Europe-wide land use regression models at 100 m spatial resolution were assigned to baseline residential addresses. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for area-level and individual-level covariates to evaluate associations with non-accidental mortality, as the main outcome, and with cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality. Subset analyses of participants living at low pollutant concentrations (as per predefined values) and natural splines were used to investigate the concentration-response function. Cohort-specific effect estimates were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings: We analysed 28 153 138 participants contributing 257 859 621 person-years of observation, during which 3 593 741 deaths from non-accidental causes occurred. We found significant positive associations between non-accidental mortality and PM2·5, NO2, and black carbon, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·053 (95% CI 1·021–1·085) per 5 μg/m3 increment in PM2·5, 1·044 (1·019–1·069) per 10 μg/m3 NO2, and 1·039 (1·018–1·059) per 0·5 × 10−5/m black carbon. Associations with PM2·5, NO2, and black carbon were slightly weaker for cardiovascular mortality, similar for non-malignant respiratory mortality, and stronger for lung cancer mortality. Warm-season O3 was negatively associated with both non-accidental and cause-specific mortality. Associations were stronger at low concentrations: HRs for non-accidental mortality at concentrations lower than the WHO 2005 air quality guideline values for PM2·5 (10 μg/m3) and NO2 (40 μg/m3) were 1·078 (1·046–1·111) per 5 μg/m3 PM2·5 and 1·049 (1·024–1·075) per 10 μg/m3 NO2. Similarly, the association between black carbon and non-accidental mortality was highest at low concentrations, with a HR of 1·061 (1·032–1·092) for exposure lower than 1·5× 10−5/m, and 1·081 (0·966–1·210) for exposure lower than 1·0× 10−5/m. Interpretation: Long-term exposure to concentrations of PM2·5 and NO2 lower than current annual limit values was associated with non-accidental, cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality in seven large European cohorts. Continuing research on the effects of low concentrations of air pollutants is expected to further inform the process of setting air quality standards in Europe and other global regions. Funding: Health Effects Institute.


The research leading to these results has received funding from the Health Effects Institute under grant 4954-RFA14-3/16-5. The research described in this Article was conducted under contract to the Health Effects Institute, an organisation jointly funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency (assistance award number R-82811201) and several motor vehicle and engine manufacturers and other sponsors.



Stafoggia, Massimo, et al. "Long-term exposure to low ambient air pollution concentrations and mortality among 28 million people: results from seven large European cohorts within the ELAPSE project." The Lancet Planetary Health 6.1 (2022): e9-e18.

Author affiliation

Centre for Environmental Health and Sustainability and School of Geography, Geology and the Environment


  • VoR (Version of Record)

Published in

The Lancet Planetary Health






e9 - e18







Copyright date


Available date




Usage metrics

    University of Leicester Publications


    No categories selected


    Ref. manager