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Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

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journal contribution
posted on 2017-11-10, 10:24 authored by Catarina Moreira, Andreas Wichert
In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

Funding

This work was supported by national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) with reference UID/CEC/50021/2013 and through the PhD grant SFRH/BD/92391/2013.

History

Citation

Frontiers in Psychology, 2016, 7:11.

Author affiliation

/Organisation/COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ARTS AND HUMANITIES/School of Management

Version

  • VoR (Version of Record)

Published in

Frontiers in Psychology

Publisher

Frontiers Media

eissn

1664-1078

Acceptance date

2016-01-05

Copyright date

2016

Available date

2017-11-10

Publisher version

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00011/full

Language

en

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