Spatio-Temporal Variation of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Taihu Lake Using Multiple Remote Sensing Indices and Machine Learning

In view of the ecological threat posed by cyanobacteria blooms in Taihu Lake (China), this paper presents a study on the area of cyanobacteria extent based on MODIS data using the quantum particle swarm optimization–random forest (QPSO-RF) machine learning algorithm. This paper selects multiple remote sensing input indices that can represent the characteristics of the primary underlying type in Taihu Lake. The proposed method performs best, with an F1 score of 0.91–0.98. Based on this method, the spatio-temporal variation of cyanobacteria blooms in the Taihu Lake complex was analyzed. During 2010–2022, the average area of cyanobacteria blooms in Taihu Lake increased slightly. Severe-scale cyanobacteria blooms occurred in 2015–2019. Cyanobacteria blooms were normally concentrated from May to November. However, the most prolonged extended duration occurred in 2017, lasting for eight months. Spatially, cyanobacteria blooms were mainly identified in the northwestern part of Taihu Lake, with an average occurrence frequency of about 10.0%. The cyanobacteria blooms often began to grow in the northwestern part of the lake and then spread to the Center of the Lake, and also dissipated earliest in the northwestern part of the lake. Our study is also beneficial for monitoring the growth of cyanobacteria blooms in other similar large lakes in long time series.