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The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as Seen in the U.K. Earth System Model

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journal contribution
posted on 2022-02-14, 06:03 authored by R Swaminathan, RJ Parker, CG Jones, RP Allan, T Quaife, DI Kelley, L De Mora, J Walton
A key goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is to keep global mean temperature change at 2°C and if possible under 1.5°C by the end of the century. To investigate the likelihood of achieving this target, we calculate the year of exceedance of a given global warming threshold (GWT) temperature across 32 CMIP6 models for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and radiative forcing combinations included in the Tier 1 ScenarioMIP simulations. Threshold exceedance year calculations reveal that a majority of CMIP6 models project warming beyond 2°C by the end of the century under every scenario or pathway apart from the lowest emission scenarios considered, SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6, which is largely a function of the ScenarioMIP experiment design. The U.K. Earth System Model (UKESM1) ScenarioMIP projections are analyzed in detail to assess the regional and seasonal variations in climate at different warming levels. The warming signal emerging by midcentury is identified as significant and distinct from internal climate variability in all scenarios considered and includes warming summers in the Mediterranean, drying in the Amazon, and heavier Indian monsoons. Arctic sea ice depletion results in prominent amplification of warming and tropical warming patterns emerge that are distinct from interannual variability. Climate changes projected for a 2°C warmer world are in almost all cases exacerbated with further global warming (e.g., to a 4°C warmer world).

Funding

U.K. National Centre for Earth Observation (NE/N018079/1)

U.K. Natural Environment Research Council through The U.K. Earth System Modelling Project (UKESM, Grant NE/N017951/1)

NERC National Capability UKESM Grant NE/N017978/1

EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO, Grant 641816

History

Citation

Journal of Climate, 15 (1), 2021, pp29-48. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0234.1

Author affiliation

National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leicester

Version

  • VoR (Version of Record)

Published in

Journal of Climate

Volume

35

Issue

1

Pagination

29 - 48

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

issn

0894-8755

eissn

1520-0442

Copyright date

2021

Available date

2022-02-14

Language

en

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