The long-lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-based cancer survival: what are the implications for data analysis?

Abstract: Monitoring trends of cancer incidence, mortality and survival is vital for the planning and delivery of health services, and the evaluation of diagnostics and treatment at the population level. Furthermore, comparisons are often made between population subgroups to explore inequalities in outcomes. During the COVID-19 pandemic routine delivery of health services were severely disrupted. Resources were redeployed to COVID-19 services and patient risk of COVID-19 infection required serious consideration. Cancer screening services were paused, the availability of healthcare providers was reduced and, in some cases, patients faced difficulty in accessing optimal treatment in a timely manner. Given these major disruptions, much care should be taken when interpreting changes in cancer survival estimates during this period. The impact on cancer incidence and mortality statistics that have already been reported in some jurisdictions should drive further thought on the corresponding impact on cancer survival, and whether any differences observed are real, artificial or a combination of the two. We discuss the likely impact on key cancer metrics, the likely implications for the analysis of cancer registration data impacted by the pandemic and the implications for comparative analyses between population groups and other risk factor groups when using data spanning the pandemic period.