Empirical Validation of the Antifragility–Fragility (AFF) Index: A Study of the UK Food, Beverage, and Hospitality Industry During COVID-19

<p dir="ltr">The empirical validation of the Antifragility–Fragility (AFF) Index represents a significant contribution to the exogenous shock literature, particularly within the UK Food, Beverage, and Hospitality Industry (FBHI) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Departing from traditional resilience approaches that predominantly emphasise recovery, antifragility uniquely captures firms' capacity to improve performance amidst volatility and uncertainty. By developing a comprehensive antifragility index integrating key financial dimensions, profitability, liquidity, leverage, and operational efficiency, this research systematically identifies and distinguishes antifragile firms that improve during disruptions from fragile firms, which exhibit marked deterioration. Empirical analysis demonstrates clear, distinct financial characteristics of antifragile firms that actively benefit and strengthen their positions during disruptions, contrasted with fragile firms, which experience significant financial decline. This study significantly advances the antifragility theory by providing a structured, empirical framework to operationalise and measure these distinct organisational responses, offering essential insights for strategic decision-making and policy formulation in volatile and uncertain market environments.</p>