dp06-7.pdf (209.15 kB)
State dependence and casual feedback of poverty and fertility in Ethiopia
report
posted on 2010-01-28, 15:30 authored by Arnstein Aassve, Abbi Mamo Kedir, Habtu Tadesse WoldegebrielThe paper implements simultaneous random effect models as a means to analyse causality issues related
to poverty and fertility in Ethiopia, a country which is plagued by high and persistent poverty and very
high fertility rates in rural areas. Using longitudinal data from both urban and rural areas of Ethiopia,
we analyse the relationship between childbearing and poverty. In addition to identifying state
dependence in poverty and fertility, we investigate to what extent fertility act as a feedback mechanism
leading to higher poverty and vice versa. We find that poverty itself has little effect on fertility, whereas
there is evidence of state dependence in poverty and important feedback from fertility on future
poverty. Not unexpected, we find substantial differences between rural and urban areas.
*Institute