What Will I Be When I Grow Up? An Analysis of Childhood Expectations and Career Outcomes

In this paper we utilise the British National Child Development Study to explore the determinants of children’s career expectations formed at the age of sixteen. We analyse how such career expectations impact upon human capital accumulation at the same age. We also analyse the extent of any divergence between childhood career expectations and the actual career outcomes experienced by the individuals at three distinct ages in adulthood (23, 33 and 42) as well as the impact of any such divergence on early- and mid-career wage growth. Our findings suggest that career expectations are an important determinant of human capital accumulation, which in turn is a key determinant of occupational status.