China’s Relations with the Arab Gulf Monarchies: Three Case Studies

As China’s international political role grows from that of a regional to a global power, its relations with states outside of its traditional sphere of interests is evolving. This is certainly the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states, as levels of interdependence between China and the GCC have increased dramatically in recent years, and span across a wide range of interests. This dissertation asks the primary question: what motivating factors explain Chinese leadership’s decision to forge closer ties to the GCC? Are the relationships motivated by international systemic pressures, unit-level domestic pressures, or a combination of both? From this initial question follows two others: what is the motivation for GCC leaders in developing closer ties to China, and what kind of role can China be expected to play in the region as levels of interdependence intensify? Using neoclassical realism to analyse the evolution of Sino-GCC relations, this dissertation develops an original model of interpreting these relationships. With case studies of China’s relations with Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, this dissertation examines the systemic and domestic pressures that shaped China’s policy toward the Arab Gulf monarchies over four periods between 1949 and 2012: indifference (1949-1965), hostility (1965-1971), transition (1971-1990), and interdependence (1990-present). It demonstrates that systemic considerations were predominant for much of the history of Sino-GCC relations, but beginning with the Reform Era, domestic pressures within China came to play a significant role. This is especially evident in analysing relations between 1990-2012. Relations during this period are examined in detail across diplomatic and political interactions, trade and investment, infrastructure and construction projects, people-to-people exchanges, and military and security cooperation, demonstrating the depth and breadth and interdependence as well as the international and domestic concerns addressed by the relationships.