posted on 2019-06-13, 10:00authored byEfthymia-Ioli Argyraki
This thesis examines three different, self-contained topics in Financial Markets Theory.
In the fi rst chapter, we present a model of fi nancial intermediation, in which
misperception of small probability events determines the allocation of systematic
risk in an economy. Particularly, we analyse an economy where households can
invest directly in projects or indirectly via bank deposits. We show that, when
households overweight the probability of an unlikely bad state, they prefer to invest
through deposits, thus allocating systematic risk to the fi nancial sector. Although
this creates financial fragility in the market, it insures households as they are less
exposed to risk. Furthermore, we examine any demand externalities that arise due
to the households' investment decision and how they affect the real economy.
In the second chapter, we develop a model of entrepreneurial fi nance in which
financiers search entrepreneurs in two financial markets. The key assumption of the
model is that markets are heterogeneous with respect to the number of entrepreneurs
located in each one. From a financier's perspective, the market with the higher number
of entrepreneurs gives a higher chance of finding an entrepreneur, and thus it
is perceived to be larger compared to the other. We identify the conditions such
that fi nanciers tend to overcrowd the larger market leaving the other one with potential
undermatched entrepreneurs. We show that over-concentration of fi nanciers
in one market may lead to excessive systematic risk in the economy and to higher
financial fragility. Thus, asymmetry in the size of fi nancial markets may accentuate
systematic risk and it is one systemic variable that policy makers need to take into
consideration.
In the final chapter, we study Bayesian persuasion in a strategic environment,
where a seller wishes to influence a buyer to buy a security. When the two agents
share a common prior belief, we characterise the optimal signals. The novel feature
of our model is that we also allow the buyer to strategically choose her own prior
ex-ante. We find that a pessimistic prior belief is optimal and that as the buyer
becomes more sceptical, the seller is more prone to truthful communication. Both
evolutionary and psychological interpretations are discussed.