University of Leicester
2016YinakaiWuPhD.pdf (1.71 MB)

Non-normality, uncertainty and inflation forecasting: an analysis of china’s inflation

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posted on 2016-04-06, 15:37 authored by Yinkai Wu
Economic forecasting is important because it can affect the decision making processes of individuals, firms and governments so as to affect their behaviours. In this thesis, I discuss different methodologies for forecasting and forecast evaluation. I also discuss the role of assumption of normality and the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting. The first chapter is the introduction of the thesis. In second chapter, I conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the performances of forecast combination and the forecast encompassing test under the forecast errors non-normality. In third chapter, I examines the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and macroeconomic uncertainty for China by using different measures of uncertainties. I also investigate the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and inflation itself. In fourth chapter, I compute the probabilities of deflation for China by applying density forecast based on the theories and methodologies from previous two chapters. Particularly, I construct density forecasts for different forecast horizons by a joint distribution using Student-t copula. The fifth chapter is conclusion.



Charemza, Wojciech; Mise, Emi

Date of award


Author affiliation

Department of Economics

Awarding institution

University of Leicester

Qualification level

  • Doctoral

Qualification name

  • PhD



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