The Atlantic nations and South Africa: Economic constraints and community fracture.

The Study is concerned with developing the hypothesis that the incipient racial crisis in South Africa will generate fracture between the nations of the Atlantic Community. Such fracture will be the result of the uneven spread of economic ties between individual Atlantic nations and South Africa. The development of the argument is set in three parts. The first focusses on the nature and scope of the process of community building in the Atlantic area. It argues that cohesion between the Atlantic nations rests on two chief considerations: economic and security. To this, a third centripetal force ensured the development of the Atlantic bargain, viz. community spirit. The second part of the study is concerned with the opposite process from that described in the first, namely the process of fracture between the Atlantic nations. Three such cases of fracture are analysed. In each of these, the Atlantic Community was prone to fracture over economic and security issues which ruptured the community spirit. The study's pivotal argument is set out in Part Three which analyses the nature and extent of the economic links between the Atlantic nations and South Africa. Two sets of empirical data are used to substantiate this demonstration - the dependency of the Atlantic nations on five non-fuel minerals from South Africa and the trade and investment links between three Atlantic nations - the United States, the United Kingdom and West Germany - and South Africa. It is demonstrated that interests between the Atlantic partners on these issues differ and, thus, that fracture between them over the South African question is likely to occur. The study offers some suggestions to prevent fracture between the Atlantic nations and these relate both to the extent of commitment which individual Atlantic nations have in South Africa and the policy postures which they have thus far preferred.