Analysis of Parameter: Move Order Rule (a_4)

Outline of the report

This automated report is divided into three sections, one for each failure condition.

Failure Condition 1 analyses the relation between the parameter: Move Order Rule (a_4), and the probability that the simulation resulted in no change, i.e. no reduction in the rate of FGM.

Failure Condition 2 analyses the relation between the parameter: Move Order Rule (a_4), and the probability that the simulation resulted in negative spillover, i.e. the number of people abandoning at the end of the simulation is less than the number initially targeted by the intervention.

Failure Condition 3 analyses the relation between the parameter: Move Order Rule (a_4), and the probability that the simulation only resulted in partial change, i.e. some people carried on practicing FGM at the end of the simulation.

The analysis used depends on whether the parameter is continuous or discrete

What to Expect: When the parameter is continuous

The first part of the analysis involves a technique called Monte Carlo Filtering (see Saltelli et al., who are cited in the thesis). In essence, this tests whether the cumulative distribution of the parameter varies between the situations where the failure scenario occurs and the situations where the failure scenario doesn’t occur. If it does, then this can be taken as an indication that the parameter has a marginal effect on the probability of the failure scenario. The test used to establish the difference is the KS-Test (with alpha set at 0.01)

The second part of the analysis involves a polynomial regression of the failure scenario on the parameter in question. This model is specified as

\[[Failure-Condition] = \beta_0 + \beta_1 [intervention-size] + \beta_2 [parameter] + \beta_3[parameter]^2 + \beta_4[parameter]^3 + \epsilon\] If one or more of the beta coefficients on the parameter is significant, this may indicate a relation between the parameter and the outcome.

The third part of the analysis is a visualization of the relation between the parameter value and the probability of the outcome, assuming an intervention of size 50%, based on the polynomial regression model.

What to Expect: When the parameter is discrete

When the parameter is discrete, the first part of the analysis is tabular. The simulation results are divided into groups based on intervention size, the groups are:

  1. All Interventions
  2. Intervention size \(\leq\) 25%%
  3. Intervention size > 25% and \(\leq\) 50%

For each group, the discrete parameter is cross-tabulated with the failure condition, to give a probability that the failure condition occurred under each parameter value.

Next, a regression model is reported. This model has the following specification:

\[[Failure-Condition] = \beta_0 + \beta_1 [intervention-size] + \beta_2 [parameter] + \beta_2[parameter]\cdot[intervention-size]\] It reports the main effects of the discrete parameter (controlling for intervention size), as well as potential interactions with the intervention size.

Next, a plot shows a linear visualization of the relationship between intervention size and the probability of the failure condition. A new gradient is fit for each discrete value of the parameter, allowing the viewer to visualize the main effects of the parameters (i.e. changing intercept of the line) and possible interactions with intervention size (i.e. changing gradient of the line)

Results for No Change (Failure Condition 1)

Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 1 (All Simulations)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 1
1 intrinsic-value 4713 0.12
2 authority 4837 0.13
3 autonomy 4729 0.13
4 simultanious 4844 0.14
5 random-sequential 4877 0.14
Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 1 (Intervention Size <= 25%)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 1
1 intrinsic-value 1532 0.17
2 authority 1548 0.17
3 autonomy 1557 0.18
4 simultanious 1545 0.19
5 random-sequential 1579 0.19
Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 1 (Intervention Size > 25% and <= 50%)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 1
1 intrinsic-value 1201 0.12
2 autonomy 1255 0.12
3 random-sequential 1282 0.13
4 simultanious 1220 0.13
5 authority 1211 0.13
Regression Model of Failure Condition 1 as a function of Move Order Rule (a
Dependent variable:
Failure Condition 1
initial-target-proportion -0.107***
(0.017)
Move Order Rule (a_4)autonomy 0.016
(0.013)
Move Order Rule (a_4)intrinsic-value 0.003
(0.013)
Move Order Rule (a_4)random-sequential 0.019
(0.013)
Move Order Rule (a_4)simultanious 0.018
(0.013)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)autonomy -0.029
(0.024)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)intrinsic-value -0.015
(0.024)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)random-sequential -0.020
(0.024)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)simultanious -0.015
(0.024)
Constant 0.175***
(0.009)
Observations 24,000
R2 0.011
Adjusted R2 0.011
Residual Std. Error 0.337 (df = 23990)
F Statistic 30.069*** (df = 9; 23990)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Results for Negative Spillover (Failure Condition 2)

Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 2 (All Simulations)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 2
1 autonomy 4729 0.34
2 intrinsic-value 4713 0.34
3 authority 4837 0.34
4 random-sequential 4877 0.35
5 simultanious 4844 0.36
Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 2 (Intervention Size <= 25%)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 2
1 authority 1548 0.32
2 autonomy 1557 0.33
3 intrinsic-value 1532 0.34
4 random-sequential 1579 0.36
5 simultanious 1545 0.37
Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 2 (Intervention Size > 25% and <= 50%)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 2
1 autonomy 1255 0.31
2 random-sequential 1282 0.31
3 intrinsic-value 1201 0.32
4 simultanious 1220 0.32
5 authority 1211 0.34
Regression Model of Failure Condition 2 as a function of Move Order Rule (a
Dependent variable:
Failure Condition 2
initial-target-proportion 0.085***
(0.024)
Move Order Rule (a_4)autonomy 0.001
(0.018)
Move Order Rule (a_4)intrinsic-value 0.024
(0.018)
Move Order Rule (a_4)random-sequential 0.033*
(0.018)
Move Order Rule (a_4)simultanious 0.042**
(0.018)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)autonomy -0.008
(0.034)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)intrinsic-value -0.055
(0.034)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)random-sequential -0.058*
(0.033)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)simultanious -0.063*
(0.033)
Constant 0.304***
(0.013)
Observations 24,000
R2 0.001
Adjusted R2 0.001
Residual Std. Error 0.475 (df = 23990)
F Statistic 3.435*** (df = 9; 23990)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Results for Partial Change (Failure Condition 3)

Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 3 (All Simulations)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 3
1 authority 4837 0.87
2 autonomy 4729 0.87
3 simultanious 4844 0.87
4 intrinsic-value 4713 0.88
5 random-sequential 4877 0.88
Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 3 (Intervention Size <= 25%)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 3
1 simultanious 1545 0.94
2 authority 1548 0.94
3 autonomy 1557 0.94
4 random-sequential 1579 0.95
5 intrinsic-value 1532 0.96
Cross Tab: Move Order Rule (a_4)by Failure Condition 3 (Intervention Size > 25% and <= 50%)
Value of Move Order Rule (a_4) N Probability of Failure Condition 3
1 autonomy 1255 0.88
2 authority 1211 0.90
3 simultanious 1220 0.90
4 intrinsic-value 1201 0.91
5 random-sequential 1282 0.91
Regression Model of Failure Condition 3 as a function of Move Order Rule (a
Dependent variable:
Failure Condition 3
initial-target-proportion -0.245***
(0.016)
Move Order Rule (a_4)autonomy -0.002
(0.012)
Move Order Rule (a_4)intrinsic-value 0.021*
(0.012)
Move Order Rule (a_4)random-sequential 0.013
(0.012)
Move Order Rule (a_4)simultanious -0.007
(0.012)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)autonomy 0.003
(0.023)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)intrinsic-value -0.017
(0.023)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)random-sequential 0.004
(0.023)
initial-target-proportion:Move Order Rule (a_4)simultanious 0.032
(0.023)
Constant 0.977***
(0.009)
Observations 24,000
R2 0.044
Adjusted R2 0.044
Residual Std. Error 0.323 (df = 23990)
F Statistic 124.095*** (df = 9; 23990)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01