Model Results for: Standard Coordination Model of FGM

Dynamics of Persistence

Note that for model variants which only apply to the simulated intervention process, this section simply shows dynamics of persistence for the standard coordination model.

This plot shows the initial rate of FGM within the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, values on the Y axis are either 1 or 0, since these are the only stable rates of FGM.

This plot shows a smoothed kernel density estimate of the distribution of rates of FGM that occured in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, the distribution estimate is bi-modal, with modes at 0 and 1, reflecting the concentration of simulated rates of FGM at these values.

This table reports quantitative metrics which summarise the above plots. It reports: the mean rate of FGM in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations, the proportion of final rates of FGM that were ‘interior’ (defined as above 10% and below 90%), and the maximum and minimum observed rates of FGM that occured in the simulation.

Average Rate (Over Uniform Initialisation): 0.4969697
Proportion Interior Rates (> 10% and < 90%): 0.0000000
Maximum Observed Rate: 1.0000000
Minimum Observed Rate: 0.0000000
Pearsons Cor. Initial and Final: 0.8432895

Results for Simulated Interventions: Random Targeting

Both of the following plots display summaries of the following aspects of the simulated intervention experiments:

  • The x-axis shows the degree of reduction in approval of FGM created by the simulation (a.k.a. ‘educational strength’ between 0% and 100%)
  • The y-axis shows the size of the intervention (proportion of population targeted: 0% - 100%)
  • The color of the points indicates the mean absolute spillover occuring for simulated interventions of this size and strength (measured after 30 time-steps)

The two plots differ in the meaning of the size of points.

  • In the first plot (above), the size of the points represents the proportion of actors practicing FGM after the intervention has finished and coordination dynamics have run for 30 time-steps
  • In the second plot (below), the size of the points represents the size of the stable coalition that formed at the outset the intervention

This table shows quantitative summaries of the results of the simulated interventions:

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.5636364
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.3336364
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.6411864
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.0911864
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 366.8327273
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.4585409
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.6867519
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.3118182

Results for Simulated Interventions: Reluctant Agents

These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are reluctant to abandon FGM (they attribute a low intrinsic cost to the practice).

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.5472727
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.3527273
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.6256682
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.0756682
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 359.1627273
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.4489534
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.6686941
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.3309091

Results for Simulated Interventions: Willing Agents

These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are more willing to abandon FGM (they attribute a high intrinsic cost to the practice).

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.5190909
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.2554545
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.6447273
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.0947273
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 411.5636364
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.5144545
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.8345455
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.1654545