Model Results for: Coordination Model w. Households as a Reference Group

Dynamics of Persistence

Note that for model variants which only apply to the simulated intervention process, this section simply shows dynamics of persistence for the standard coordination model.

This plot shows the initial rate of FGM within the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, values on the Y axis are either 1 or 0, since these are the only stable rates of FGM.

This plot shows a smoothed kernel density estimate of the distribution of rates of FGM that occured in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, the distribution estimate is bi-modal, with modes at 0 and 1, reflecting the concentration of simulated rates of FGM at these values.

This table reports quantitative metrics which summarise the above plots. It reports: the mean rate of FGM in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations, the proportion of final rates of FGM that were ‘interior’ (defined as above 10% and below 90%), and the maximum and minimum observed rates of FGM that occured in the simulation.

Average Rate (Over Uniform Initialisation): 0.4859545
Proportion Interior Rates (> 10% and < 90%): 0.3818182
Maximum Observed Rate: 1.0000000
Minimum Observed Rate: 0.0000000
Pearsons Cor. Initial and Final: 0.9406084

Results for Simulated Interventions: Random Targeting

Both of the following plots display summaries of the following aspects of the simulated intervention experiments:

  • The x-axis shows the degree of reduction in approval of FGM created by the simulation (a.k.a. ‘educational strength’ between 0% and 100%)
  • The y-axis shows the size of the intervention (proportion of population targeted: 0% - 100%)
  • The color of the points indicates the mean absolute spillover occuring for simulated interventions of this size and strength (measured after 30 time-steps)

The two plots differ in the meaning of the size of points.

  • In the first plot (above), the size of the points represents the proportion of actors practicing FGM after the intervention has finished and coordination dynamics have run for 30 time-steps
  • In the second plot (below), the size of the points represents the size of the stable coalition that formed at the outset the intervention

This table shows quantitative summaries of the results of the simulated interventions:

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.5481818
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.3518182
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.6069670
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.0569670
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 366.7563636
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.4584455
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.6955416
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.0354545

Results for Simulated Interventions: Reluctant Agents

These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are reluctant to abandon FGM (they attribute a low intrinsic cost to the practice).

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.5200000
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.3800000
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.5956318
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.0456318
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 357.9127273
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.4473909
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.6656107
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.0554545

Results for Simulated Interventions: Willing Agents

These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are more willing to abandon FGM (they attribute a high intrinsic cost to the practice).

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.6154545
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.2845455
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.6209295
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.0709295
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 394.8690909
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.4935864
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.7860640
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.0054545