Model Results for: Coordination Model w. ‘J-modal’ H Dist

Dynamics of Persistence

Note that for model variants which only apply to the simulated intervention process, this section simply shows dynamics of persistence for the standard coordination model.

This plot shows the initial rate of FGM within the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, values on the Y axis are either 1 or 0, since these are the only stable rates of FGM.

This plot shows a smoothed kernel density estimate of the distribution of rates of FGM that occured in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, the distribution estimate is bi-modal, with modes at 0 and 1, reflecting the concentration of simulated rates of FGM at these values.

This table reports quantitative metrics which summarise the above plots. It reports: the mean rate of FGM in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations, the proportion of final rates of FGM that were ‘interior’ (defined as above 10% and below 90%), and the maximum and minimum observed rates of FGM that occured in the simulation.

Average Rate (Over Uniform Initialisation): 0.0939394
Proportion Interior Rates (> 10% and < 90%): 0.0000000
Maximum Observed Rate: 1.0000000
Minimum Observed Rate: 0.0000000
Pearsons Cor. Initial and Final: 0.5058296

Results for Simulated Interventions: Random Targeting

Both of the following plots display summaries of the following aspects of the simulated intervention experiments:

  • The x-axis shows the degree of reduction in approval of FGM created by the simulation (a.k.a. ‘educational strength’ between 0% and 100%)
  • The y-axis shows the size of the intervention (proportion of population targeted: 0% - 100%)
  • The color of the points indicates the mean absolute spillover occuring for simulated interventions of this size and strength (measured after 30 time-steps)

The two plots differ in the meaning of the size of points.

  • In the first plot (above), the size of the points represents the proportion of actors practicing FGM after the intervention has finished and coordination dynamics have run for 30 time-steps
  • In the second plot (below), the size of the points represents the size of the stable coalition that formed at the outset the intervention

This table shows quantitative summaries of the results of the simulated interventions:

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.8236364
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.0763636
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.9236364
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.3736364
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 413.2927273
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.5166159
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.8405378
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.0763636

Results for Simulated Interventions: Reluctant Agents

These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are reluctant to abandon FGM (they attribute a low intrinsic cost to the practice).

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.6118182
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.2881818
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.7118182
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.1618182
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 377.1000000
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.4713750
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 0.7052935
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.2881818

Results for Simulated Interventions: Willing Agents

These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are more willing to abandon FGM (they attribute a high intrinsic cost to the practice).

Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: 0.8981818
Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: 0.0018182
Average Reduction in FGM rate: 0.9983636
Average Absolute Spillover: 0.4483636
Average Coalition Size (Absolute): 440.0000000
Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): 0.5500000
Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): 1.0000000
Prop. Coalition Collapse 0.0000000