Model Results for: Coordanation Model w. Symmetric Social Pressures
Dynamics of Persistence
Note that for model variants which only apply to the simulated intervention process, this section simply shows dynamics of persistence for the standard coordination model.
This plot shows the initial rate of FGM within the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, values on the Y axis are either 1 or 0, since these are the only stable rates of FGM.
This plot shows a smoothed kernel density estimate of the distribution of rates of FGM that occured in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations. Under the standard coordination model with normally distributed approval of FGM, the distribution estimate is bi-modal, with modes at 0 and 1, reflecting the concentration of simulated rates of FGM at these values.
This table reports quantitative metrics which summarise the above plots. It reports: the mean rate of FGM in the ‘dynamics of persistence’ simulations, the proportion of final rates of FGM that were ‘interior’ (defined as above 10% and below 90%), and the maximum and minimum observed rates of FGM that occured in the simulation.
| Average Rate (Over Uniform Initialisation): | 0.2272727 |
| Proportion Interior Rates (> 10% and < 90%): | 0.0000000 |
| Maximum Observed Rate: | 1.0000000 |
| Minimum Observed Rate: | 0.0000000 |
| Pearsons Cor. Initial and Final: | 0.7202941 |
Results for Simulated Interventions: Random Targeting
Both of the following plots display summaries of the following aspects of the simulated intervention experiments:
- The x-axis shows the degree of reduction in approval of FGM created by the simulation (a.k.a. ‘educational strength’ between 0% and 100%)
- The y-axis shows the size of the intervention (proportion of population targeted: 0% - 100%)
- The color of the points indicates the mean absolute spillover occuring for simulated interventions of this size and strength (measured after 30 time-steps)
The two plots differ in the meaning of the size of points.
- In the first plot (above), the size of the points represents the proportion of actors practicing FGM after the intervention has finished and coordination dynamics have run for 30 time-steps
- In the second plot (below), the size of the points represents the size of the stable coalition that formed at the outset the intervention
This table shows quantitative summaries of the results of the simulated interventions:
| Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: | 0.7500000 |
| Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: | 0.1500000 |
| Average Reduction in FGM rate: | 0.8419977 |
| Average Absolute Spillover: | 0.2919977 |
| Average Coalition Size (Absolute): | 421.7490909 |
| Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): | 0.5271864 |
| Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): | 0.8633504 |
| Prop. Coalition Collapse | 0.1363636 |
Results for Simulated Interventions: Reluctant Agents
These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are reluctant to abandon FGM (they attribute a low intrinsic cost to the practice).
| Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: | 0.7390909 |
| Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: | 0.1609091 |
| Average Reduction in FGM rate: | 0.8301409 |
| Average Absolute Spillover: | 0.2801409 |
| Average Coalition Size (Absolute): | 418.6590909 |
| Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): | 0.5233239 |
| Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): | 0.8471439 |
| Prop. Coalition Collapse | 0.1527273 |
Results for Simulated Interventions: Willing Agents
These results are based on preferentially targeting agents who are more willing to abandon FGM (they attribute a high intrinsic cost to the practice).
| Proportion of interventions with positive spillovers: | 0.7563636 |
| Proportion of interventions with negative efficiencies: | 0.1436364 |
| Average Reduction in FGM rate: | 0.8702727 |
| Average Absolute Spillover: | 0.3202727 |
| Average Coalition Size (Absolute): | 435.9272727 |
| Average Coalition Size (As proportion of population): | 0.5449091 |
| Average Coalition Size (As porportion of those targeted): | 0.9545455 |
| Prop. Coalition Collapse | 0.0454545 |